Sunday, February 25, 2007

TourneyBuzz: Life on the Bubble




Aw, life on the bubble. Constant uncertainty, stress and pressure. These teams have played themselves on the bubble. Whether by playing bad or by making a late-season run to put them in contention for the NCAA's. Let's take a look at the bubble as it stands one week before conference tournaments begin:




ACC


Georgia Tech (18-10, 9-5 ACC)


RPI: 48


SOS: 31


Key Wins: Maryland, NC State


Key Losses: Georgia, Temple, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State


Status: Good. While the ACC isn't as strong as last season, Georgia Tech has earned nine wins in the league, including big wins over Maryland and NC State. Their numbers are just good enough to get in.


Big 12


Oklahoma State (19-9, 7-8 Big 12)


RPI:69


SOS:81


Key Wins:Iowa State, Nebraska, Texas (twice)


Key Losses: Arkansas State, Oklahoma (twice), Baylor (twice), Texas A&M (twice)


Status: Iffy. While no one is going to be disappointed with a WNIT bid after being in the cellar for so long, Kurt Budke's squad is on the cusp of breaking through. They must defeat K-State on the road for any chance and then win a game or two in the Big 12 tourney.


Texas (17-12, 6-9 Big 12)


RPI:31


SOS:6


Key Wins: Purdue, Oklahoma, Texas A&M


Key Losses: Duke, Tennessee, Kansas


Status:Iffy. Great RPI numbers, played a tough schedule. However, Texas should not be in this position. Injuries or no injuries, Texas has let their program slip and now will likely miss the NCAA's again this year. A five-game losing streak, broken last night against Tech, is not something the committee is going to look favorably upon. Good wins and computer numbers are keeping their slim hopes alive.


Big East


Seton Hall (18-9, 9-6 Big East)


RPI:64


SOS:60


Key Wins: Marquette, Pittsburgh


Key Losses: UConn, Kansas, Virginia, Rutgers


Status: Iffy. Computer numbers are low, but the Pirates might have a chance if they can upset South Florida on the road and get to 10 Big East wins. Might also have to get a win in the Big East Tournament.


Big Ten


Illinois (18-9, 8-7 Big Ten)


RPI: 76


SOS: 98


Key Wins: Michigan State


Key Losses: Indiana (twice), Ohio State, Purdue, Mississippi


Status: Bursting. While the Illini will finish in the top five of the Big Ten, a spot that would typically get you in, the league is down big time and Illinois needed to not lose to the likes of Indiana and Minnesota to up their league record. They will need to upset Purdue today at home and likely win a game in the Big Ten Tourney or maybe more in order to get in. A .500 league record won't do the job with that bad RPI and only one marquee win.


Pac-10


Washington (18-11, 11-7 Pac-10)


RPI:41


SOS: 21


Key Wins: Texas A&M, Gonzaga, Florida State, USC, California


Key Losses: Ohio State, Marquette, Stanford (twice)


Status: Good. Quality wins, good computer numbers, a fourth place finish in the Pac-10. All signs point to a bid for Washington. Winning their first round league tourney game will solidify.


USC (16-11, 10-7 Pac-10)


RPI:67


SOS:70


Key Wins: Notre Dame, Washington


Key Losses: South Dakota State, Stanford, Cal (twice), Arizona State (twice)


Status: Bursting. A few weeks back they weren't in contention at all after injuries depleted four of their top players. A win over Cal earlier this week would have gone a long way to improving their chances, but they lost in OT. Today they have a long-shot chance of upsetting Stanford on the road. A win there and their status is better. Right now, they are likely a WNIT team.


SEC


Mississippi State (17-11, 7-6 SEC)


RPI: 66


SOS: 46


Key Wins: Ole Miss, Georgia Tech


Key Losses: LaTech, Purdue, Tennessee, LSU


Status: Iffy. Typically, a .500 record in the SEC is good enough. Like so many of the other power leagues this season, the SEC is not as strong and might only get five teams. MSU needs to finish at 8-6 in the league and I think they are good, although their RPI is bad and they really have no marquee wins.

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